Ahh, graphing success. I once read that a New York philanthropist who had supported many artists over her years came to the conclusion that most successful artists took about ten years on average to achieve some sort of recognition. So for the film student, time = zero begins on that first day of school, the day he or she puts up the placard saying, "I am a film student and by the way, sorry mom but I am not going into dentistry even though I probably should." So on the graph we have success on the Y axis and a time line of ten years on the X axis. Top of the Y axis- the ACADEMY AWARD and at the bottom SCHOOL.

ON THE WAY UP

As the days pass in school and you make stuff everything should be a bit better than the last. Oh, there will be projects that make you slip back but all in all the trajectory should be up. With each little success you'll gain confidence, smarts, and discover that indeed and the Academy Award or something like it could be yours.

WHAT IF IT DOESN'T GO UP?

Filmmaking is hard. Really hard. And sometimes you falter and fall. The descent can be really fast or a slow burn over several years. Just look for the warning signs on the graph. If you find your curve going south back towards zero and school on the Y axis then the Academy Award my not be yours anytime soon or ever. Like my S vs T graph, I ended back at school, teaching. And then into negative territory- fired from teaching- soon after.

AND NOW

Well, now that I'm in negative territory, I'm just going to extend the time line a bit more. Another ten years. Why not? Frank McCourt, the New York English teacher, born in 1930, finally achieved big time success in 1996 with his novel Angela's Ashes when he was sixty-six years old! His time line was about 40 years. So I won't despair, it's all part of the evolution of being a filmmaker or artist. But if you do make in ten years- think Robert Rodriguez- then good for you, you're probably a genius and that Academy Award will eventually be yours.